DOW-UAP-D127, AAWSAP DIRD, An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation, March 2010
Department of War · 3/11/10 · Las Vegas, Nevada · Document
DOW-UAP-D127, AAWSAP DIRD, An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation, March 2010 is indexed as a Department of War record with incident date 3/11/10 and location Las Vegas, Nevada. This document is a Defense Intelligence Reference Document (DIRD), a technical reference format used by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) to capture baseline knowledge on a specific topic for later analytic use. DIRDs are best understood as reference and synthesis products rather than as original research. It is one of 38 DIRDs produced under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications Program (AAWSAP) between 2009 and 2011. Because AAWSAP s scope permitted a broad range of supporting topics, not every DIRD in the series directly concerns aerospace systems or future threat assessment. The following summary reflects the DIRD s scope and framing at the time of writing and should not be read as implying current validation of the concepts discussed. This DIRD introduces the Drake Equation, a well-known thought framework for estimating how many communicative extraterrestrial civilizations might exist in the galaxy. It reformulates the equation in statistical terms, arguing that the usual approach of assigning fixed values to its variables is too simplistic because major inputs are uncertain and are better modeled as probability distributions. Using that approach, it concludes that, if one accepts the underlying logic of the Drake Equation, the estimated number of communicating civilizations should be treated as a range of possible values, and that the likely distance between neighboring civilizations can likewise be expressed statistically rather than as a single figure. The document is primarily a mathematical and methodological exercise, and its worked examples rely on assumed values to illustrate the framework rather than to establish a firm astrophysical estimate. Overall, it is an attempt to formalize uncertainty within the Drake framework rather than an attempt to bound the actual likelihood, prevalence, or proximity of extraterrestrial civilizations. Redactions have been made to protect the identity of eyewitnesses, the location of government facilities, or potentially sensitive information about military sites not related to UAP. No redactions have been made to any files released under President Trump's directive concerning information about the nature or existence of any encounter reported as a UAP or related phenomena.
Notable / anomalous element
- We derive the relevant probability density function, apparently previously unknown and dubbed "Maccone distribution" by Paul Davies. (native PDF text, page 28)
- The Probability of Finding the Nearest Extraterrestrial Civilization at the distance r From Earth (in light years) if the Values Assumed in the Drake Equation are Those Shown in Input Table 1. (native PDF text, page 22)
- is the probability of finding the nearest Extra Terrestrial Civilization at the distance r from Earth (in light years) if the values assumed in the Drake Equation are those shown in Table I. (native PDF text, page 52)
- This is the probability of finding the nearest Extra Terrestrial Civilization at the distance r from Earth (in light years) if the values assumed in the Drake Equation are those shown in Table I. (native PDF text, page 52)
Details
- This product is one in a series of advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Warning Office's Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) Program. (native PDF text, page 2)
- Comments or questions pertaining to this document should be addressed t o!AAP Person 1 AAWSA Prog ram Manager, Defense Intelligence Agency, ATTN: CLAR/DWO-3, Bldg 6000, Washington, DC 20340-5100. ii UNCLASSIFIED//F8R 8FFl61tlib Wlilli Qtlb (native PDF text, page 2)
- The Key Question: How Far are They?. (native PDF text, page 3)
- Computing N By Virtue of the Drake Equation (1961). (native PDF text, page 3)
- The Drake Equation is Over-Simplified. (native PDF text, page 3)
- Solving the Statistical Drake Equation By Virtue of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics.,. (native PDF text, page 3)
- An Example Explaining the Statistical Drake Equation. (native PDF text, page 3)
- Introduction SETI (an acronym for "Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence") is a relatively new branch of scientific research, having begun only in 1959. (native PDF text, page 4)
Tags: War Department, Nevada, AAWSAP, Technical research, Lights, Weapons